They say to be careful what you wish for…and with Halloween just around the corner, kids aren’t the only ones wishing for a “treat”. This Wednesday, October 31st, The Fed will decide if the financial markets will get a treat of their own with another cut to the Fed Funds Rate. It is very fitting that the decision on whether or not the Fed cuts rates happens on Halloween, because the “treat” may be a bit “tricky”.
A Fed rate cut typically helps the economy and the stock market, but inflation hating Bonds and home loan rates usually have a negative reaction to a cut. This was evident last month, when the Fed’s .50% cut sent Stocks soaring, but caused Bonds and home loan rates to worsen.
So should the Fed deliver another cut, Stock prices should enjoy a nice start to November, which is already historically the best performing month for Stocks since 1990. But it isn’t a party for all, as rates on savings accounts will decline and home loan rates will likely blip higher. Additionally, Adjustable Rate home loans may be more in vogue, as the initial start rates will offer bigger discounts compared to Fixed Rate options.
A look at the chart shows that Mortgage Bond prices are almost exactly where they were before the last Fed cut in September. Notice how Bond prices dropped right after the cut, which caused home loan rates to worsen. And should the Fed cut on Wednesday, it is quite possible that in response, home loan rates will worsen once again.
Patrick Dunn, Westwood Mortgage Inc. & MMG Weekly
patrick@westwoodmortgage.com / http://www.certifiedplanning.com/